Good luck, bonne chance, buena suerte!

Submitted by Dozy on Sat, 10/18/2008 at 4:22pm.

Do you think that luck plays a part in chess, or is it purely a game of skill?  As one of my opponents said recently, “Chess is a game of cool calculation; luck has nothing to do with it.”

If chess were played solely on the chessboard and only by computers, he'd probably be right. In real play, especially tournament play, there may be any number of external factors that can impact on the result of a game.

A few years ago I played in the U1600 division of the New South Wales Open. The NSWCA was offering the highest cash prize every awarded for an U1600 tournament in Australia.  It was expected to attract the strongest eligible field, including many up-and-coming juniors. I had few personal expectations. I'd played in many tournaments in the past and normally finished in the top 15% but rarely won prizes, so I was completely relaxed and expected to enjoy the weekend's chess.

So why, on the night before the competition, was I unable to sleep? I'm a chronic insomniac and that night I managed little more than two hours. The result was that when I got to the tournament I was pretty tired.

The result? Although I had a material advantage in my first two games against low-rated players I blundered in both the end games and had to settle for draws. That was good luck for my opponents, but bad luck for me.

Or was it?

There's a phenomenon, which may be an urban myth, known as the Swiss Gambit. A player is supposed to throw his first game so that he gets an easier passage through the field—for the nature of Swiss tournaments is to pair winners against winners, losers against losers. Maybe my luck would prove to be good instead of bad.

I slept well on Saturday night and managed three wins on the Sunday. Maybe that Swiss Gambit was working for me after all.

But in New South Wales, tournaments are notoriously slow to start and even though all the players were there on time the tournament start was again held up. That meant that everybody was going to have a late night. Bad luck for those of us with long distances to travel but, I suppose, good luck for those who lived nearby and would face weary opponents the next day.

My third opponent played Philidor's Defence (1...e5, 2...d6) but had never seen Legal's Mate. Good luck for me, this time, because the game was all over in ten minutes. Even luckier, it was the final game so I was in bed early and turned up on Monday completely refreshed and feeling dangerous.

Luck didn't seem to be a factor any more. Whatever the result I would have no excuses.

I won the first game which placed me on the top board for the final round. That game proved to be a long, hard grind. Perhaps there was an element of luck even there because, no matter how many times I analysed the game later, I couldn't work out why I had brought my queen into a counter-attack without any realistic plan to make use of her. Even now, I can't see what I hoped to gain by it. Fortunately (another “luck” word) my opponent didn't understand it either and made the wrong response allowing me to win. So I ended up finishing 1-2 with the guy who won on Board 2.

I was lucky!

And so, my friends, if you and I sit down at our computers to play a game of chess I will continue to wish you good luck—but my fingers may be crossed as I wish it.

(The games are available under New South Wales Open in the box to the right of this page.  Don't expect masterpieces—it was a restricted-class tournament.)

Wink

There are many examples of luck in world chess, but this post would be much too long if I catalogued them here. If you can think of some, please add them below.

Do tell us what you think about chess and luck.  Is it all skill?   Is it all calculation?   Is there an element of luck that creeps in?  Let's have your thoughts.

» posted in Dozy's Inferno
 

Comments:

by Kingfisher - 13 months ago
Johannesburg South Africa
Member Since: Sep 2007
Member Points: 1667

"Bad luck" is a term used to excuse bad preparation.

by Muspelheim - 13 months ago
Jakarta Indonesia
Member Since: Aug 2008
Member Points: 289

I think being lucky is great ! But I don't want to depend on that factor too much Smile

by Dozy - 13 months ago
Blue Mountains Australia
Member Since: Aug 2007
Member Points: 2136

It looks as though the comments are polarising into two—make that three!—schools of thought. Those who think luck is a factor, those who don't, and those who have a sense of humour about the whole thing.

Kingfisher: I do not believe in luck, neither in chess nor in any other field of life. To do so would equal belief in destiny, another piece of BS IMO. We have ten varieties of kingfisher in Australia and the biggest and best known of these is the laughing kookaburra. I'm sure you'll find lots of chance situations as you walk across life's chess board that you will need to attribute to luck. I hope most of that translates into good luck but, when you run into bad luck occasionally then be like the kookaburra and see if you can see the funny side. There's always one in there somewhere.

Smartattack: This is very interesting issue. As a friend of mine says there is luck on chess. He likes to call it the "3rd force" as the interaction between black and white. I think I'd like your friend. I might even pinch his idea one day and write a piece about that “third force”.

uritbon: in online chess games the "luck" factor is always negative for me :(, in tournament chess however luck proves vital for my games, and gets me out of the mess i created in the weird gambit opening my opponent likes to throw at me.  :D You're a man after my own heart, uritbon. I like your sense of humour.

Melanerz: I believe luck has very little to do with chess. There are elements in the game but it is mainly calculation and the ability to read your opponent's game plan and exploit it. Of course you're right, Melanerz. Chess is undoubtedly a game of calculation. My point was that external factors that have little to do with chess can influence the way the game is played. Of course, sometimes the luck is in your choice of opponent. One guy I played recently was seeing things I couldn't begin to anticipate. He made me feel like a beginner.

by uritbon - 13 months ago
tel aviv Israel
Member Since: Apr 2008
Member Points: 1000

in online chess games the "luck" factor is always negetive for me :(, in turnoment chess however luck proves vital for my games, and gets me out of the mess i created in the weird gambit opening my opponent likes to throw at me...
 :D

i have just participated in a turnoment with players with much higher ratings than me :(, and got into passive positions in the openings that i didn't know as well and as far as they did :(, but i got 3.5 out of 6, and that made me, a 1324 against 1600/1700+ very happy! i don't think i deserved it, it was luck...

by Smartattack - 13 months ago
Portugal
Member Since: Jul 2007
Member Points: 871

This is very interesting issue.As a friend of mine says there is luck on chess.He likes to call it the "3rd force" as the interaction betweend black and white.And i think we have all experienced the sensation of the game going to en endgame in positions we are familiar with them without doing nothing for so.

by Kingfisher - 13 months ago
Johannesburg South Africa
Member Since: Sep 2007
Member Points: 1667

I do not believe in luck, neither in chess nor in any other field of life. To do so would equal belief in destiny, another piece of BS IMO.

by Dozy - 13 months ago
Blue Mountains Australia
Member Since: Aug 2007
Member Points: 2136

Thank you all for commenting.

ztnook 500: “very nice... good luck!” :-) and good luck to you, Dan.

oginschile: “Far too few of us keep our humanity when it comes to chess.” Unfortunately that can be true. I remember one strong player (ACF 1900+) setting out to humiliate a young boy because he felt it was beneath his dignity to play a child. He didn't realise that the lad could find his way around a chess board. I forget the boy's name—it was a long time ago—but I never forgot that he completely outplayed the man and queened three pawns. Did that mean that all the the extra fire-power put him at risk of stalemating a won game? Not a chance!

staggerlee: “What I like to say is, 'There are no dice rolls in chess.' Luck is not built into the game. That's part of why I like it. I don't play games with dice.” I'll drink to that. Mostly our luck is in our own hands, and, although it's clichéd to say so, the harder we prepare the luckier we get. It's one of the things I like about chess, too.

vrus94: “There is nothing anyone can do to stop people from being human.” Ain't it the truth though. I'd like a dollar for every time I've played an inexplicably bad move in an even—or worse, a won—position. And I'm so accomplished at doing it that I've no doubt I'll continue to make blunders in the future. Which, of course, is lucky for my opponents.

Phil_from_Blayney: at different times any number of things can happen which have an influence on our results that may be attributed to luck, sometimes good, sometimes bad :). Absolutely. That kind of luck evens out in the long run, so although it affects our performance in individual games it probably doesn't have much impact on our overall performance.

by Phil_from_Blayney - 13 months ago
Blayney, NSW Australia
Member Since: Apr 2008
Member Points: 256

I think you are spot on, at different times any number of things can happen which have an influence on our results that may be attributed to luck, sometimes good, sometimes bad :)

As one before said, the mix of good and bad tend to balance out over time, and all we can do is try to play our best throughout.

I always offer a handshake and "Good luck." before a game, the best retort that I have ever had come back was a simple, "You don't really mean that!" Thankfully it was all in jest and we proceeded to enjoy a good game.

by Virus94 - 13 months ago
United States
Member Since: Oct 2008
Member Points: 28

Anything can happen to humans.. Some people call it what they want but one word is luck - Computers that play chess with no mistakes is pure calculation - So in the end, things just happen... There is nothing anyone can do to stop people from being human =D

by staggerlee - 13 months ago
Clermont-Ferrand France
Member Since: Mar 2008
Member Points: 717

The types of luck you described can certainly have an impact on our games.  However, I think these types of luck probably cancel out.  In the long run chess is a game of calculation and skill.  What I like to say is, "There are no dice rolls in chess."  Luck is not built into the game.  That's part of why I like it.  I don't play games with dice.

by oginschile - 13 months ago
Salt Lake City, UT United States
Member Since: Aug 2007
Member Points: 1049

Mathematically (or logically if you prefer) we can explain inevitable results from positions or moves etc. In this sense, chess is definitely (and purely) a game of calculation.

But this obviously assumes perfect (or even competent) play. In tournaments we are playing humans who are not perfect (and many times not even competent).

I think your well written blog here describes how many of us use the word luck in chess... regarding things we can't control.

I may make a speculative pawn sacrifice which may work and I get the win. After the game someone may run the sac past Rybka and see there was a refutation that would have cost me the game. The calculators among us would say my pawn sac was a mistake, while many would just say i was "lucky my opponent didn't find the refutation."

In the end the mere humans amongst us may feel prompted to say, it was a "calculated risk", which paid off.

Far too few of us keep our humanity when it comes to chess... Thank you Dozy for reminding us to be human!!! Laughing

by ztnook500 - 13 months ago
Cincinnati United States
Member Since: Jun 2008
Member Points: 182

very nice... good luck!

 

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